Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Data Says Jews Vote Obama in 2012

Ariela Fleisig — June 2, 2011 – 1:52 pm | Democrats | Election 2012 | Obama Comments (0) Add a comment

Two decades of data show that a majority of American Jews are likely to vote for President Barack Obama’s 2012 re-election, University of Virginia Center for Politics’ Alan I. Abramowitz wrote today. According to Abramowitz, there are at least three reasons why:

First, similar concerns voiced by political opponents about Obama’s support for Israel had little impact on Jewish voters in 2008; second, Jewish loyalty to the Democratic Party appears to be based primarily on the liberal views of most Jewish voters on domestic policy issues, especially on social issues; and third, the influence of religious conservatives and Tea Party supporters on the Republican Party remains a major obstacle to the GOP in attracting support from Jewish voters.

He also wrote:

Over the past 40 years, Democratic identification has declined among traditionally Democratic groups such as white southerners and Catholics as more conservative members of these groups have shifted their loyalty to the Republican Party. Among Jews, however, there has been little evidence of such a shift because those with conservative views made up a small minority of all Jewish voters.

The continued liberalism of Jewish voters on domestic policy issues, and especially on social issues such as abortion, remains a major obstacle to Republican inroads. In fact, the rightward drift of the GOP in recent years has probably made any such shift of Jewish voters into the Republican camp even less likely.

Abramowitz concluded:

As a result, there is almost no chance that the ultimate victor in the Republican nomination contest will be able to significantly increase the GOP share of the Jewish vote beyond the relatively small minority of conservative Jews who have been voting for Republican candidates in recent years.

Click here to read Abramowitz’s full article.

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