Politico published an insightful piece, “Will cash follow Specter?.” The article explores the fundraising implications to Senator Arlen Specter’s party switch.
The beginning:
Republican-turned-Democrat Arlen Specter seems confident Pennsylvania voters will follow him on Election Day. But will the political money move, too?
He has a lot of work ahead of him. He’s raised about $9 million for his reelection campaign next year and has about $7 million in the bank.
Given the cost of recent Keystone State Senate races, he’ll need at least another $10 million and more if he winds up with a Democratic primary challenger, said Jennifer Duffy, an expert on Senate races at the Cook Political Report.
Most modern party switchers have managed to fill the void left by disenfranchised donors. Last week, Specter landed Democratic fundraiser Fran Katz Watson, who helped Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman raise cash fast after he lost the 2006 Democratic primary and ran for reelection in the general election as an independent.
But Specter’s shift could produce some unexpected challenges for two reasons: He’s done a full party switch rather than taking a half-step and becoming an independent, and he did it in the midst of the campaign season.
On pro-Israel money and the Jewish community specifically:
The pro-Israel community alone could generate as much as $2 million for Specter’s campaign, representing just a portion of the money that could be tapped from the Democratic Party’s liberal, Jewish base, experts estimated.
“On balance, there will be more Jewish-American money that goes to him if he’s a Democrat and if he has any kind of decent relationship with the caucus and the party,” said Ira Forman, executive director of the National Jewish Democratic Council.
“The strictly pro-Israel money is going to be with him whether he’s a Democrat or a Republican,” Forman added. “Those fundraising events have probably already begun, and that will go on uninterrupted.”
The senator promised to refund donations to those who ask for their money back, and party officials in Pennsylvania and Washington were the first to take him up on his offer. Thus far, there are about 80 requests, amounting to about $84,000, said Specter’s campaign spokesman, Christopher Nicholas.
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